It generated some conversation, as whoever the Sixers' select will be a big piece to the future of the franchise.
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It goes without saying that the Sixers face some big
decisions in the upcoming NBA Draft.
They are guaranteed a pick in the top 5, and with any luck, the
pick ends up in the top two. (Also with some luck, they will have another pick
from the Pelicans).
The 2014 Draft could work to greatly shape the future of the
franchise, as the picks, in addition to the freshly-minted Rookie of the Year,
Michael Carter-Williams, could form the foundation with which the team is
built.
The Sixers will have several intriguing options wherever
they select, and wise selection-making will be beyond important. (Like Sam Hinkie doesn’t know that).
With that being said, the Sixers might want to stay away
from Kansas center Joel Embiid, tempting as his selection may seem.
Embiid possess elite athletics and ability for his size, and
has been labeled the best center prospect in a decade. He has drawn comparisons
to Tim Duncan and Hakeem Olajuwon, and is projected by many as the best overall
prospect in the draft.
Considering all of this then, why would the Sixers steer
clear?
Well, there are a couple red flags around Embiid, as well as
broader concerns about bigs, and their transition to, and longevity in the
league.
The first issue with Embiid is injury. No, he doesn’t have a
track record of serious injury issues, but any injuries in young players,
especially centers - and especially injuries that cause a player to miss all of
his conference and NCAA tournament games, are a concern.
A bad back caused Embiid to miss the end of his college
career, and even though it has been insisted that the back isn’t an issue, it
has to be taken into consideration. This isn’t a broken bone; a bad back, even
if healed for the moment, could be a lingering issue, especially considering
the wear-and-tear it would be subject to throughout an NBA career. If the back
was starting to bother Embiid after a single 30-game college season, how is it
going to hold up in the fourth year of his career after multiple 80-plus game
seasons?
We’ve seen big guys’ bodies break down again and again: Yao
Ming, Pervis Ellison, Andrew Bynum, and of course, Greg Oden.
The Sixers can’t afford to be the 2014-version of the
Blazers, who selected Greg Oden over Kevin Durant, who was named the 2014 NBA
MVP on Tuesday, especially considering the obvious perimeter potential in the
draft. Sure, Embiid has an upside, but it would be devastating for the
organization to pass on a Wiggins or a Parker for an Embiid who winds up with a
career full of injury issues.
Embiid could develop into the league’s next great big, but
the risk factor is high, especially considering the players that could be
potentially passed in his favor.
The next issue is that the necessity, and even the benefit,
of possessing a traditional, dominant big, is dwindling. This isn’t the 1900’s
NBA anymore where seemingly every solid squad was stacked with a star center:
Ewing in New York, Morning in Charlotte, Olajuwon in Houston, Robinson in San
Antonio, O’Neal in Orlando and so on. The league now boasts far fewer traditional,
back-to-the-basket bigs, and they are certainly not a prerequisite to having a
top team at this point. Miami, the league’s defending champion, employs a
lineup that basically consists of four forwards, and this shift toward
small-ball and floor-spacing is consistent across the league’s landscape.
Centers are now as valued for their ability to get up and down the floor, and
for being able to lure a defender out of the paint, as they are for their
ability to play in the post.
Having a traditional, back-to-the-basket center requires a
certain type of tempo; one that Brett Brown’s up-tempo team may not be
interested in pursuing. A blending of the two styles is possible, sort of in
the way that Houston has incorporated Dwight Howard’s traditional post play
into their streaking style, but it can be difficult. An athletic wing who can
put the ball in the basket seems more of a natural fit for Brown and the
resurgent Sixers.
The history of the NBA is filled with high-potential post
players that didn’t pan out: Sam Bowie, Michael Olowokandi, Eddy Curry, Kwame
Brown, Oden, and many more. It is too early, and unfair, to lump Embiid in with
these individuals, as he could develop into a productive professional. The
precedent of highly-touted bigs struggling to succeed is well-documented
however. Embiid’s injury issues, however minor they may be at this point, serve
as another concern.
Considering the gravity of the Sixers’ looming draft day
decisions, it may be in the team’s best interest to avoid Embiid, and the
potential risks that would surround his selection, and look elsewhere instead.
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